Nucleation and Cascade Features of Earthquake Mainshock Statistically Explored from Foreshock Seismicity.

The relation between the size of an earthquake mainshock preparation zone and the magnitude of the forthcoming mainshock is different between nucleation and domino-like cascade models. The former model indicates that magnitude is predictable before an earthquake's mainshock because the preparation zone is related to the rupture area. In contrast, the latter indicates that magnitude is substantially unpredictable because it is practically impossible to predict the size of final rupture, which likely consists of a sequence of smaller earthquakes. As this proposal is still controversial, we discuss both models statistically, comparing their spatial occurrence rates between foreshocks and aftershocks. Using earthquake catalogs from three regions, California, Japan, and Taiwan, we showed that the spatial occurrence rates of foreshocks and aftershocks displayed a similar behavior, although this feature did not vary between these regions. An interpretation of this result, which was based on statistical analyses, indicates that the nucleation model is dominant.

Study of Geo-Electric Data Collected by the Joint EMSEV-Bishkek RS-RAS Cooperation: Possible Earthquake Precursors.

By employing the cross-correlogram method, in geo-electric data from the area of Kyrgyzstan for the period 30 June 2014-10 June 2015, we identified Anomalous Telluric Currents (ATC). From a total of 32 ATC after taking into consideration the electric current source properties, we found that three of them are possible Seismic Electric Signal (SES) activities. These three SES activities are likely to be linked with three local seismic events. Finally, by studying the corresponding recordings when a DC alternating source injects current into the Earth, we found that the subsurface resistivity seems to be reduced before one of these three earthquakes, but a similar analysis for the other two cannot be done due to their large epicentral distance and the lack of data.

Spatiotemporal variations of seismicity before major earthquakes in the Japanese area and their relation with the epicentral locations.

Using the Japan Meteorological Agency earthquake catalog, we investigate the seismicity variations before major earthquakes in the Japanese region. We apply natural time, the new time frame, for calculating the fluctuations, termed ß, of a certain parameter of seismicity, termed κ1. In an earlier study, we found that ß calculated for the entire Japanese region showed a minimum a few months before the shallow major earthquakes (magnitude larger than 7.6) that occurred in the region during the period from 1 January 1984 to 11 March 2011. In this study, by dividing the Japanese region into small areas, we carry out the ß calculation on them. It was found that some small areas show ß minimum almost simultaneously with the large area and such small areas clustered within a few hundred kilometers from the actual epicenter of the related main shocks. These results suggest that the present approach may help estimation of the epicentral location of forthcoming major earthquakes.

Preseismic changes of the level and temperature of confined groundwater related to the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake.

Anomalous groundwater changes started three months before the 2011 M9.0 Off the Pacific coast of the Tohoku Earthquake (Tohoku EQ), Japan. Groundwater level and temperature decreased almost simultaneously in a 2000-m well at a spa, Goyo-onsen, in Iwate Prefecture, 155 km northwest of the epicenter. Since the source of Goyo-onsen, located above the edge of a coseismic rupture area of the Tohoku EQ fault, is probably confined, the observed anomalies were caused probably by preseismic crustal deformation. Preseismic groundwater anomalies have been observed prior to similar large subduction EQs such as the 1946 M8.1 Nankai EQ. Thus, monitoring confined groundwater may be useful to identify precursors of large subduction EQs.

A large hydrothermal reservoir beneath Taal Volcano (Philippines) revealed by magnetotelluric observations and its implications to the volcanic activity.

Taal Volcano is one of the most active volcanoes in the Philippines. The magnetotelluric 3D forward analyses indicate the existence of a large high resistivity anomaly (∼100 Ω·m) with a volume of at least 3 km×3 km×3 km, which is capped by a conductive layer (∼10 Ω·m), beneath the Main Crater. This high resistivity anomaly is hypothesized to be a large hydrothermal reservoir, consisting of the aggregate of interconnected cracks in rigid and dense host rocks, which are filled with hydrothermal fluids coming from a magma batch below the reservoir. The hydrothermal fluids are considered partly in gas phase and liquid phase. The presence of such a large hydrothermal reservoir and the stagnant magma below may have influences on the volcano's activity. Two possibilities are presented. First, the 30 January 1911 explosion event was a magmatic hydrothermal eruption rather than a base-surge associated with a phreato-magmatic eruption. Second, the earlier proposed four eruption series may be better interpreted by two cycles, each consisting of series of summit and flank eruptions.

Minimum of the order parameter fluctuations of seismicity before major earthquakes in Japan.

It has been shown that some dynamic features hidden in the time series of complex systems can be uncovered if we analyze them in a time domain called natural time χ. The order parameter of seismicity introduced in this time domain is the variance of χ weighted for normalized energy of each earthquake. Here, we analyze the Japan seismic catalog in natural time from January 1, 1984 to March 11, 2011, the day of the M9 Tohoku earthquake, by considering a sliding natural time window of fixed length comprised of the number of events that would occur in a few months. We find that the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity exhibit distinct minima a few months before all of the shallow earthquakes of magnitude 7.6 or larger that occurred during this 27-y period in the Japanese area. Among the minima, the minimum before the M9 Tohoku earthquake was the deepest. It appears that there are two kinds of minima, namely precursory and nonprecursory, to large earthquakes.

Preseismic anomalous telluric current signals observed in Kozu-shima Island, Japan.

Monitoring of telluric current, which is practically a synonym for geoelectric potential difference, was conducted on Kozu-shima Island about 170 km south of Tokyo from May 14, 1997 to June 25, 2000. During the monitoring period, 19 anomalous telluric current changes (ATCs) were observed. Their possible correlation with nearby earthquakes was statistically examined by assuming various lead times for different ranges of magnitude and focal distance. The best correlation may be obtained for earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 3.0 occurring within 20 km of focal distance. There were 23 such earthquakes, of which 11 were preceded by ATCs within 30 d. Of these 11 earthquakes, preceding ATCs of 5 and 6 were positive and negative polarities of telluric current, respectively. Their epicenters were spatially well clustered in the east and west of the island. These facts were clearly beyond those expected by chance and led to a simple speculative model.

Subterranean electrical structure of Kozu-shima volcanic island, Japan.

Following the electric current injection experiment carried out in 2009, a VLF-MT (Very Low Frequency Magnetotelluric) survey has been conducted in Kozu-shima Island to obtain further information on the subterranean electrical structure that might help understanding the results of our monitoring of geoelectric potentials. A number of VAN-type pre-seismic geoelectric potential anomalies were observed in 1997-2000, even showing a remarkable "Selectivity". However, similar pre-seismic anomalies were not observed during the Izu-Island volcano-seismic swarm 2000. All these observations would require extremely high degree of heterogeneity in the subterranean electrical structure of the volcanic island and its possible time changes. Several correlations between the results of this survey and the volcanic geology of the island and ground water distribution were found. Further investigation is needed for a complete explanation of the observed phenomena.

Heterogeneous electrical structure of Kozu-shima volcanic island, Japan.

Nearly twenty anomalous geoelectric field changes were observed before earthquakes at Kozu-shima Island, Japan, from 1997 to 2000. In order to help locating the current sources of the observed anomalous changes, a bipole-dipole resistivity survey was conducted. From the resistivity survey, including current injection into the ground, it was found that various features of the anomalous changes were systematically different from those of changes caused by artificial sources and induction of geomagnetic disturbances. Moreover, it is suspected that the currents of anomalous changes were generated not near the ground surface but deep under the ground.

Independent component analysis of geoelectric field data in the northern Nagano, Japan.

Simultaneous anomalous change of geoelectric field was observed on January 17, 1999 at three far-distant stations in Nagano Prefecture, Japan. Eleven days after the anomalous change, an earthquake swarm with a M4.8 main shock started at a location within the triangle formed by the three stations. This change was rectangular in shape like the VAN-type anomalous change in Greece. The anomaly could be detected because it occurred at midnight when the noise level was low. In fact, there were a few M4-class earthquakes in the area for which no preceding anomalous electric changes were observed, perhaps because the changes occurred during the noisy daytime. In this paper, we examine if it is possible to extract the signal with the size of the anomalous change on January 17, 1999 from the noisy daytime data by Independent Component Analysis. For this purpose, a simulated noise was embedded in the real daytime data which were highly influenced by not only artificial noise but also by geomagnetic disturbances and rainfall. Even when the influence of geomagnetic disturbance or rainfall was large, the anomalous change was clearly recognized at least at two stations in all cases.

Trial of multidisciplinary observation at an expandable sub-marine cabled station "off-hatsushima island observatory" in sagami bay, Japan.

Sagami Bay is an active tectonic area in Japan. In 1993, a real-time deep sea floor observatory was deployed at 1,175 m depth about 7 km off Hatsushima Island, Sagami Bay to monitor seismic activities and other geophysical phenomena. Video cameras monitored biological activities associated with tectonic activities. The observation system was renovated completely in 2000. An ocean bottom electromagnetic meter (OBEM), an ocean bottom differential pressure gauge (DPG) system, and an ocean bottom gravity meter (OBG) were installed January 2005; operations began in February of that year. An earthquake (M5.4) in April 2006, generated a submarine landslide that reached the Hatsushima Observatory, moving some sensors. The video camera took movies of mudflows; OBEM and other sensors detected distinctive changes occurring with the mudflow. Although the DPG and OBG were recovered in January 2008, the OBEM continues to obtain data.

Time variation of the electromagnetic transfer function of the earth estimated by using wavelet transform.

In order to accurately estimate the geomagnetic transfer functions in the area of the volcano Mt. Iwate (IWT), we applied the interstation transfer function (ISTF) method to the three-component geomagnetic field data observed at Mt. Iwate station (IWT), using the Kakioka Magnetic Observatory, JMA (KAK) as remote reference station. Instead of the conventional Fourier transform, in which temporary transient noises badly degrade the accuracy of long term properties, continuous wavelet transform has been used. The accuracy of the results was as high as that of robust estimations of transfer functions obtained by the Fourier transform method. This would provide us with possibilities for routinely monitoring the transfer functions, without sophisticated statistical procedures, to detect changes in the underground electrical conductivity structure.